8鏈堜腑鍥介潪鍒堕�犱笟鍟嗗姟娲诲姩鎸囨暟涓?3.4%

    銆�2015骞?#56;鏈堜唤锛屼腑鍥介潪鍒堕�犱笟鍟嗗姟娲诲姩鎸囨暟涓?#53;3.4%锛屾瘮涓婃湀鍥炶惤0.5涓�鐧惧垎鐐癸紝浠嶉珮浜庝复鐣岀�?#51;.4涓�鐧惧垎鐐癸紝琛ㄦ槑鎴戝浗闈炲埗閫犱笟鎬讳綋缁х画淇濇寔绋冲畾澧為暱鎬佸娍銆?nbsp;

 
銆�銆�鍒嗚�屼笟鐪嬶紝鏈嶅姟涓氬晢鍔℃椿鍔ㄦ寚鏁颁�?#53;2.6%锛屾瘮涓婃湀鍥炶惤0.2涓�鐧惧垎鐐癸紝琛ㄦ槑鏈嶅姟涓氫笟鍔℃�婚噺澧為�熺暐鏈夋斁缂擄紝鍏朵腑鑸�绌鸿繍杈撲笟銆侀偖鏀夸笟銆佷綇瀹夸笟銆佺�熻祦鍙婂晢鍔℃湇鍔′笟銆佷簰鑱旂綉鍙婅蒋浠朵俊鎭�鎶�鏈�鏈嶅姟涓氱瓑琛屼笟鍟嗗姟娲诲姩鎸囨暟楂樹簬涓寸晫鐐癸紝琛ㄦ槑浼佷笟涓氬姟鎬婚噺澧為暱杈冨揩锛涜祫鏈�甯傚満鏈嶅姟涓氥�侀搧璺�杩愯緭涓氥�侀亾璺�杩愯緭涓氱瓑琛屼笟鍟嗗姟娲诲姩鎸囨暟浣嶄簬涓寸晫鐐逛互涓嬶紝琛ㄦ槑浼佷笟涓氬姟鎬婚噺鏈夋墍鍥炶惤銆傚缓绛戜笟鍟嗗姟娲诲姩鎸囨暟涓?#53;7.8%锛屾瘮涓婃湀鍥炶惤2.3涓�鐧惧垎鐐癸紝琛ㄦ槑寤虹瓚涓氫笟鍔℃�婚噺鎬讳綋淇濇寔澧為暱锛屼絾澧為�熸湁鎵�鏀剧紦銆?br />  
銆�銆�鏂拌�㈠崟鎸囨暟涓�49.6%锛屾瘮涓婃湀涓嬮檷0.5涓�鐧惧垎鐐癸紝闄嶈嚦涓寸晫鐐逛互涓嬨�傚垎琛屼笟鐪嬶紝鏈嶅姟涓氭柊璁㈠崟鎸囨暟涓?#52;9.0%锛屾瘮涓婃湀涓嬮檷0.8涓�鐧惧垎鐐广�傚缓绛戜笟鏂拌�㈠崟鎸囨暟涓�53.1%锛屾瘮涓婃湀涓婂崌1.7涓�鐧惧垎鐐癸紝琛ㄦ槑寤虹瓚涓氬競鍦洪渶姹傛湁鎵�鍥炲崌銆?br />  
銆�銆�鎶曞叆鍝佷环鏍兼寚鏁颁负49.6%锛屾瘮涓婃湀鍥炲崌0.7涓�鐧惧垎鐐癸紝缁х画浣嶄簬涓寸晫鐐逛互涓嬶紝琛ㄦ槑闈炲埗閫犱笟浼佷笟鐢ㄤ簬鐢熶骇杩愯惀鐨勬姇鍏ュ搧浠锋牸鎬讳綋姘村钩鏈夋墍涓嬮檷锛屼絾闄嶅箙鏀剁獎銆傚垎琛屼笟鐪嬶紝鏈嶅姟涓氭姇鍏ュ搧浠锋牸鎸囨暟涓?#52;9.7%锛屾瘮涓婃湀鍥炲崌0.6涓�鐧惧垎鐐广�傚缓绛戜笟鎶曞叆鍝佷环鏍兼寚鏁颁负48.8%锛屾瘮涓婃湀鍥炲崌1.1涓�鐧惧垎鐐广�?br />  
銆�銆�閿�鍞�浠锋牸鎸囨暟涓�47.8%锛屾瘮涓婃湀鍥炲崌0.4涓�鐧惧垎鐐癸紝缁х画浣嶄簬涓寸晫鐐逛互涓嬨�傚垎琛屼笟鐪嬶紝鏈嶅姟涓氶攢鍞�浠锋牸鎸囨暟涓�47.3%锛屾瘮涓婃湀鍥炲崌0.5涓�鐧惧垎鐐广�傚缓绛戜笟閿�鍞�浠锋牸鎸囨暟涓�50.6%锛屼笌涓婃湀鎸佸钩銆?br />  
銆�銆�浠庝笟浜哄憳鎸囨暟涓?#52;9.5%锛屾瘮涓婃湀鍥炲崌0.3涓�鐧惧垎鐐癸紝缁х画浣嶄簬涓寸晫鐐逛互涓嬶紝琛ㄦ槑闈炲埗閫犱笟浼佷笟鐢ㄥ伐閲忔湁鎵�鍑忓皯銆傚垎琛屼笟鐪嬶紝鏈嶅姟涓氫粠涓氫汉鍛樻寚鏁颁负49.1%锛屾瘮涓婃湀鍥炲崌0.3涓�鐧惧垎鐐广�傚缓绛戜笟浠庝笟浜哄憳鎸囨暟涓?#53;1.6%锛屼笌涓婃湀鎸佸钩銆?br />  
銆�銆�涓氬姟娲诲姩棰勬湡鎸囨暟涓?#53;9.7%锛屾瘮涓婃湀鍥炶惤0.3涓�鐧惧垎鐐癸紝缁х画浣嶄簬杈冮珮鏅�姘斿尯闂达紝琛ㄦ槑闈炲埗閫犱笟浼佷笟瀵规湭鏉?#51;涓�鏈堝競鍦哄彂灞曢�勬湡缁х画淇濇寔姣旇緝涔愯�傛�佸害銆?br />  

銆�銆�琛?/strong>1  涓�鍥介潪鍒堕�犱笟PMI涓昏�佹寚鏁帮紙缁忓�ｈ妭璋冩暣锛?/strong>
銆�銆�鍗曚綅锛?#37;
	鍟嗗姟娲诲姩	鏂拌�㈠�?/td>	鎶曞叆鍝?br /> 浠锋牸	閿�鍞�浠锋�?/td>	浠庝笟浜哄憳	涓氬姟娲诲姩 棰勬湡
2014骞?#56;鏈?/td>	54.4	50.0	52.2	48.3	49.6	61.2
2014骞?#57;鏈?/td>	54.0	49.5	49.8	47.3	49.5	60.9
2014骞?#49;0鏈?/td>	53.8	51.0	52.0	48.8	48.9	59.9
2014骞?#49;1鏈?/td>	53.9	50.1	50.6	47.7	49.5	59.7
2014骞?#49;2鏈?/td>	54.1	50.5	50.1	47.3	49.1	59.5
2015骞?#49;鏈?/td>	53.7	50.2	47.6	46.9	50.3	59.6
2015骞?#50;鏈?/td>	53.9	51.2	52.5	51.2	49.8	58.7
2015骞?#51;鏈?/td>	53.7	50.3	50.0	48.4	49.0	58.8
2015骞?#52;鏈?/td>	53.4	49.1	50.8	48.9	48.9	60.0
2015骞?#53;鏈?/td>	53.2	49.5	52.8	50.4	47.6	60.1
2015骞?#54;鏈?/td>	53.8	51.3	50.6	48.7	49.7	59.7
2015骞?#55;鏈?/td>	53.9	50.1	48.9	47.4	49.2	60.0
2015骞?#56;鏈?/td>	53.4	49.6	49.6	47.8	49.5	59.7

 

銆�銆�琛?/strong>2  涓�鍥介潪鍒堕�犱笟PMI鍏朵粬鎸囨暟锛堢粡瀛ｈ妭璋冩暣锛?/strong>
銆�銆�鍗曚綅锛?#37;
	鏂板嚭鍙ｈ�㈠�?/td>	鍦ㄦ墜璁㈠崟	瀛樿揣	渚涘簲鍟嗛厤閫佹椂闂?/td>
2014骞?#56;鏈?/td>	51.6	46.5	46.9	52.2
2014骞?#57;鏈?/td>	50.8	44.0	46.1	51.7
2014骞?#49;0鏈?/td>	49.0	45.6	47.3	52.5
2014骞?#49;1鏈?/td>	49.3	44.1	46.3	51.5
2014骞?#49;2鏈?/td>	52.9	46.7	46.7	51.4
2015骞?#49;鏈?/td>	53.3	45.4	46.5	51.6
2015骞?#50;鏈?/td>	52.1	46.5	47.8	51.5
2015骞?#51;鏈?/td>	51.5	43.1	47.2	52.0
2015骞?#52;鏈?/td>	49.7	44.2	46.4	52.5
2015骞?#53;鏈?/td>	47.9	43.7	46.8	52.0
2015骞?#54;鏈?/td>	50.1	44.7	47.0	51.9
2015骞?#55;鏈?/td>	46.2	43.4	46.7	51.9
2015骞?#56;鏈?/td>	46.6	43.7	45.8	51.7

 
銆�銆�闄勬敞
 
銆�銆�1.鎸囨爣瑙ｉ噴
 
銆�銆�涓�鍥介潪鍒堕�犱笟PMI鎸囨爣浣撶郴锛岀敱鍟嗗姟娲诲姩鎸囨暟銆佹柊璁㈠崟鎸囨暟銆佹柊鍑哄彛璁㈠崟鎸囨暟銆佸湪鎵嬭�㈠崟鎸囨暟銆佸瓨璐ф寚鏁般�佹姇鍏ュ搧浠锋牸鎸囨暟銆侀攢鍞�浠锋牸鎸囨暟銆佷粠涓氫汉鍛樻寚鏁般�佷緵搴斿晢閰嶉�佹椂闂存寚鏁般�佷笟鍔℃椿鍔ㄩ�勬湡鎸囨暟绛�10涓�鍒嗙被鎸囨暟鏋勬垚銆傜敱浜庢病鏈夊悎鎴愮殑闈炲埗閫犱笟缁煎悎PMI鎸囨暟锛屽浗闄呬笂閫氬父鐢ㄥ晢鍔℃椿鍔ㄦ寚鏁板弽鏄犻潪鍒堕�犱笟缁忔祹鍙戝睍鐨勬�讳綋鍙樺寲鎯呭喌锛屼互50%浣滀负缁忔祹寮哄急鐨勫垎鐣岀偣锛岄珮浜?#53;0%鏃讹紝鍙嶆槧闈炲埗閫犱笟缁忔祹鎵╁紶锛涗綆浜?#53;0%锛屽垯鍙嶆槧闈炲埗閫犱笟缁忔祹鏀剁缉銆?br />  
銆�銆�2.璋冩煡鑼冨洿
 
銆�銆�鑷?#50;015骞?#54;鏈堣捣瀵硅皟鏌ヨ寖鍥磋繘琛岃皟鏁达紝娑夊強銆婂浗姘戠粡娴庤�屼笟鍒嗙被銆嬶紙GB/T4754­2011锛変腑闈炲埗閫犱笟鐨勮�屼笟澶х被鐢卞師鏉ョ�?#50;7涓�鎵╁厖鍒�31涓�锛岃皟鏌ユ牱鏈�鐢卞師鏉ョ殑1200瀹舵墿鍏呭埌4000瀹躲�?br />  
銆�銆�3.璋冩煡鏂规硶
 
銆�銆�闈炲埗閫犱笟閲囪喘缁忕悊璋冩煡閲囩敤PPS锛?#80;robability Proportional to Size锛夋娊鏍锋柟娉曪紝浠ラ潪鍒堕�犱笟琛屼笟澶х被涓哄眰锛岃�屼笟鏍锋湰閲忔寜鍏跺�炲姞鍊煎崰鍏ㄩ儴闈炲埗閫犱笟澧炲姞鍊肩殑姣旈噸鍒嗛厤锛屽眰鍐呮牱鏈�浣跨敤涓庝紒涓氫富钀ヤ笟鍔℃敹鍏ユ垚姣斾緥鐨勬�傜巼鎶藉彇銆?br />  
銆�銆�鏈�璋冩煡鐢卞浗瀹剁粺璁″眬鐩村睘璋冩煡闃熷叿浣撶粍缁囧疄鏂斤紝鍒╃敤鍥藉�剁粺璁¤仈缃戠洿鎶ョ郴缁熷�逛紒涓氶噰璐�缁忕悊杩涜�屾湀搴﹂棶鍗疯皟鏌ャ�?br />  
銆�銆�4.璁＄畻鏂规硶
 
銆�銆�闈炲埗閫犱笟閲囪喘缁忕悊璋冩煡闂�鍗锋秹鍙婁笟鍔℃�婚噺銆佹柊璁㈠崟锛堜笟鍔￠渶姹傦級銆佸嚭鍙ｃ�佸湪鎵嬭�㈠崟銆佸瓨璐с�佹姇鍏ュ搧浠锋牸銆侀攢鍞�浠锋牸銆佷粠涓氫汉鍛樸�佷緵搴斿晢閰嶉�佹椂闂淬�佷笟鍔℃椿鍔ㄩ�勬湡绛�10涓�闂�棰樸�傚�规瘡涓�闂�棰樺垎鍒�璁＄畻鎵╂暎鎸囨暟锛屽嵆姝ｅ悜鍥炵瓟鐨勪紒涓氫釜鏁扮櫨鍒嗘瘮鍔犱笂鍥炵瓟涓嶅彉鐨勭櫨鍒嗘瘮鐨勪竴鍗娿�?br />  
銆�銆�5.瀛ｈ妭璋冩暣璇存槑
 
銆�銆�閲囪喘缁忕悊璋冩煡鏄�涓�椤规湀搴﹁皟鏌ワ紝鍙楀�ｈ妭鍥犵礌褰卞搷锛屾暟鎹�娉㈠姩杈冨ぇ銆傜洰鍓嶏紝鎴戝浗闈炲埗閫犱笟PMI鏃堕棿搴忓垪宸叉弧瓒冲�ｈ妭璋冩暣鐨勬妧鏈�瑕佹眰锛岃�?#50;012骞?#51;鏈堣捣鍙戝竷瀛ｈ妭璋冩暣鍚庣殑闈炲埗閫犱笟PMI鍒嗙被鎸囨暟銆?br />  
銆�銆�6.鍙戝竷鏃堕棿鍙樻洿璇存槑
 
銆�銆�鑷?#50;015骞磋捣锛岄潪鍒堕�犱笟PMI鍙戝竷鏃堕棿鐢卞師鏉ョ殑姣忔湀3鏃ュ彉鏇翠负姣忔湀1鏃ワ紱鍚屾椂锛屼负浜嗕娇鍏�浼楁洿瀹规槗鐞嗚В鎸囨爣鍚�涔夛紝灏嗗師“涓�闂存姇鍏ヤ环鏍兼寚鏁�”鏀逛负“鎶曞叆鍝佷环鏍兼寚鏁?rdquo;锛屽師“鏀惰垂浠锋牸鎸囨暟”鏀逛负“閿�鍞�浠锋牸鎸囨�?rdquo;銆?br />